
WTI settled at $85.36 and Brent at $90.02 as the US prepared new sanctions that could target Iranian oil exports after Iran's attack on Israel. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Iran was still exporting some oil and more measures could follow.
Possible sanctions on Iranian crude would tighten available supply and support prices. The threat adds a risk premium to crude that feeds through to diesel and freight costs.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.