Oil gains more than $2 after settlement on reports Iran preparing Israel attack

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+0.8%
• Oct 11, 2019Oil rises 2% after reports of Iranian tanker attack | Reuters+0.6%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+9.6%
• Apr 16, 2024Oil prices hold firm as U.S. weighs added sanctions on Iran oil exports after attack on Israel-2.8%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+9.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+1.5%
• Oct 11, 2019Oil rises 2% after reports of Iranian tanker attack | Reuters+0.9%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+10.8%
• Apr 16, 2024Oil prices hold firm as U.S. weighs added sanctions on Iran oil exports after attack on Israel-3.7%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+10.8%