Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2026Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption | Reuters+1.5%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+9.6%
• Jun 17, 2025Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates | Reuters-9.9%
• Jul 31, 2026Oil prices settle more than 1% higher, log strongest month since March | Reuters-7.4%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+0.7%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2026Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption | Reuters+1.4%
• Aug 30, 2026Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks | Reuters+10.8%
• Jun 17, 2025Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates | Reuters-1.7%
• Jul 31, 2026Oil prices settle more than 1% higher, log strongest month since March | Reuters-4.9%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+2.0%