Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 28, 2024Oil rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook+5.8%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+10.8%
• Jun 17, 2025Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates | Reuters-1.7%
• Mar 28, 2023Oil prices rise on Kurdish supply risks and banking relief | Reuters+10.2%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-5.7%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 28, 2024Oil rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook+6.4%
• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+9.6%
• Jun 17, 2025Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates | Reuters-9.9%
• Mar 28, 2023Oil prices rise on Kurdish supply risks and banking relief | Reuters+10.4%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-8.1%