Oil prices rise on Kurdish supply risks and banking relief

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2026Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption | Reuters+1.5%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-8.1%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-3.0%
• Mar 30, 2023Oil rises over 1% on Iraqi supply risks, U.S. crude draw | Reuters+10.6%
• Aug 29, 2022Oil prices climb on OPEC supply cut prospect, rise in demand-6.7%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2026Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption | Reuters+1.4%
• May 17, 2026Oil prices rise 3% to two-week high on Iran war supply concerns | Reuters-5.7%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-2.4%
• Mar 30, 2023Oil rises over 1% on Iraqi supply risks, U.S. crude draw | Reuters+9.7%
• Aug 29, 2022Oil prices climb on OPEC supply cut prospect, rise in demand-7.9%