
Oil rose about 1% on Monday as expectations grew that OPEC would cut output if needed, alongside conflict in Libya and strong European fuel demand from gas-to-oil switching. Brent traded near $101.88 and WTI near $94.15.
Expected OPEC supply cuts and firm European fuel demand support crude prices, which lifts biofuel feedstock and input cost expectations.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 327 past geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.