
The benchmark diesel price rose 2 cents to $3.914 a gallon after eight weeks of declines. Brent broke above $80 a barrel, led by crude as geopolitical supply worries grew, while ULSD futures lagged.
A turn higher in fuel benchmarks lifts surcharges and trucking costs for feed buyers, with crude strength signaling possible further upward pressure.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.