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Gasoline and diesel futures surged after US and Israeli attacks on Iran halted most tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude jumped about 14% and diesel futures rose as much as 17% on March 2, 2026.
Disruption to Hormuz tanker flows removes a major share of seaborne crude and fuel supply, pushing energy costs higher for farm diesel, transport and processing. Higher energy prices also lift the cost of fertilizer and biofuel-linked feedstocks.
ttnews.comAri Natter, Will KubzanskyMar 2, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crude up ~14% intraday on March 2 as tanker traffic through Hormuz halted, confirming the supply shock mechanism.
