Oil rose after reports that Iran's Supreme Leader directed that enriched uranium must stay inside the country, complicating peace talks. WTI climbed 2.2% to $100.40 and Brent gained 1.8% to $106.90.
Stalled talks keep the Hormuz risk premium in crude, supporting energy and fertilizer costs that feed into feed and grain production economics. The move reflects geopolitical uncertainty rather than a confirmed supply loss.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.