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Oil and gas prices surged on Monday after Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation forced shutdowns of facilities across the region and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent settled up 6.7% at $77.74 a barrel after trading as high as $82.37.
Disruption through Hormuz threatens a major share of seaborne energy flows, lifting crude, natural gas and freight costs. Higher energy and fertilizer costs feed through to feed production expenses.
reuters.comNicole JaoMar 1, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reports Brent settling up 6.7% on Monday March 2 after US/Israeli strikes on Iran and Hormuz shipping disruption, directly matching the move.
Initial strikes on Iran and Hormuz shipping disruption triggered the first Brent jump, starting the 5-day rally via supply risk.
Initial strikes on Iran and retaliation shut regional facilities and disrupted Hormuz shipping, starting the supply-shock rally.
