
Oil prices surged about 20% on Monday to their highest since July 2022 as the expanding US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted Middle Eastern supplies. Iraq and Kuwait began cutting output after Qatar reduced LNG shipments, and analysts expect the UAE and Saudi Arabia to follow as storage fills.
Brent and WTI both traded above $107 a barrel.
Lost Middle East crude and fears of prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption push energy costs sharply higher, raising diesel and transport costs for feed mills and farms. Higher energy prices also tend to lift biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils and corn, supporting feed ingredient prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Prices surged about 20% as Iraq and Kuwait cut output and storage filled, adding to the supply shock.