
July Nymex natural gas closed up 6.53% on Monday, June 3, 2024, after an unplanned outage at Norway's Nyhamna gas processing plant cut European supplies. Lower-48 production was 98.9 bcf/day and forecasts called for hotter-than-normal US summer temperatures.
Higher European demand for US LNG and expected summer power burn support US gas prices. This is an energy-wide move with limited direct effect on feed grain prices.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 14 past geopolitics events, LCATTLE moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -1.3% to -0.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.