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A Science article reports that illegal deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado is linked to EU imports of Brazilian soy and beef. It notes that EU criticism fuels calls to boycott Brazilian products and to withhold ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade deal.
The authors argue Brazil's agribusiness faces risk without tackling illegal clearing.
Boycott risk and buyer scrutiny of Brazilian soy and beef could shift EU demand toward other origins and lift premiums for compliant supply.
science.orgRaoni Rajão, Britaldo Soares-Filho, Felipe Nunes, Jan Börner, Lilian MachadoJul 17, 2020After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 62 past geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 14 past geopolitics events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -1.3% to -0.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
