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The European Commission's spring 2022 short-term outlook says the Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global agricultural markets and added uncertainty to grain and oilseed supplies. EU cereal production is projected at 297.7 million tonnes for 2022, which could partly offset the expected loss of Ukrainian grain exports.
A large EU harvest and lower feed demand from reduced pig production could cushion the global shortfall from Ukraine, limiting upside in grain and feed prices. Affordability concerns remain high.
agriculture.ec.europa.euDirectorate-GeneralApr 5, 2022After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 62 past geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
