
Russia's average delay for vessels bound for Ukrainian Azov Sea ports fell to 16.6 hours in April 2020, down from a 2019 average of 29.9 hours. Half of the vessels entered the Sea of Azov without the usual long delays, the first time since June 2018.
The monthly monitoring report is from the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies.
Shorter delays at Azov ports ease logistics costs and make it easier to move Ukrainian grain. The effect on global prices is small, but it lowers the risk premium tied to the Russian blockade.
After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.