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A CSIS analysis says Russia wants to restart the expired Black Sea Grain Initiative. It notes that Russia's agricultural exports rose 7% from 2023 to 2024 and that Ukraine has expanded its exports without Russian cooperation.
The analysis argues that Russian demands for loosened sanctions would mainly strengthen Russia's farm sector.
Ukraine's continued export flows limit how much a restored grain deal could change global wheat supply, so the price effect is small. Any sanctions relief would mainly add to Russian export competition over time.
csis.orgMar 28, 2025After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
