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Russia's agriculture ministry said Russia-Ukraine tensions in the Azov Sea should not significantly affect Russian grain exports. It noted that Azov shipments fall in the autumn and winter low season.
The ministry expects no serious change to grain exports from the current standoff.
Official Russian reassurance removes some risk premium from Black Sea wheat, so the effect on prices is neutral to slightly bearish. Export volumes are not expected to change in this season.
businessinsider.comReutersNov 29, 2018After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
