Ceasefire or stalemate? Grain exports at risk in Black Sea deal - Food & Agribusiness

After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Apr 8, 2025Shipbrokers weigh the impact of a Black Sea peace deal on grain exports+1.7%
• Nov 29, 2018Russia Does Not Expect Ukraine Crisis to Have Big Impact on Grain Exports - Business Insider+1.4%
• Mar 28, 2025Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?-1.4%
• Mar 25, 2025Russia says food and fertiliser sanctions must be lifted for Black Sea deal-1.9%
• Apr 5, 2022Supply shock caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine puts strain on various EU agri-food sectors-2.1%

After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2025Russia, Ukraine agree to avoid attacks on grain ships, energy infrastructure on Black Sea-1.5%
• Jun 23, 2022Prices for feed barley in Ukraine remain under pressure from lack of export demand 23.06.2022 - UkrAgroConsult+1.6%
• Apr 5, 2022Supply shock caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine puts strain on various EU agri-food sectors-2.1%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-3.5%
• May 16, 2020BlackSeaNews | Russia's economic war against Ukraine in the Sea of Azov: "loosening the grip" or the fear of catching the virus? – The monitoring for April 2020-0.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.