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Grain exports were not expected to be hit by Russia-Ukraine tensions in the Azov Sea, citing Russian ministry comments through TASS. Russia fired on and seized three Ukrainian navy ships on November 25, and Ukraine imposed martial law in parts of the country.
Ukraine's acting agriculture minister said grain shipments from Azov ports were unaffected so far and could be diverted to the Black Sea if needed.
Diversion options to Black Sea ports limit the risk to Ukrainian grain supply, so wheat prices are only slightly affected. Ongoing martial law and the seizure of ships keep a risk premium in freight and insurance.
world-grain.comSusan ReidyNov 30, 2018After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
