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Peace discussions involving Ukrainian, European and Russian representatives are active again, though the outcome is uncertain. USDA's December WASDE cut Ukraine's 2025/26 coarse grain exports to 25.5 MMT and wheat exports to 14.5 MMT, below pre-war norms.
A durable de-escalation could ease the export friction premium and lower freight and risk costs, which would be bearish for Ukrainian corn and wheat prices, while the trimmed USDA export outlook remains supportive.
breakwaveadvisors.comIntermodalDec 24, 2025After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
