U.S. grains: Wheat up off two-week low on Ukraine export uncertainty

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2026Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says-0.8%
• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia+1.7%
• Mar 1, 2023Talks on extending Black Sea grain deal start in a week - Ukraine-1.6%
• Aug 29, 2018U.S. grains: Wheat soars on new rumours of Russian export curbs - Manitoba Co-operator+5.6%
• Jul 25, 2022Wheat prices rise as missile strike threatens Ukraine export pact-9.5%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Aug 29, 2018U.S. grains: Wheat soars on new rumours of Russian export curbs - Manitoba Co-operator+0.5%
• Jul 25, 2022Wheat prices rise as missile strike threatens Ukraine export pact+6.6%
• Feb 10, 2023U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns+2.2%
• Sep 30, 2022Rabo ups wheat price forecasts amid Ukraine export fears, lifts robusta hopes too - Grain Price News-0.2%
• Mar 24, 2022Uncertainty dominates global, US wheat markets | World Grain-6.0%

After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 24, 2025Ukraine’s grain export landscape — Breakwave Advisors-1.0%
• Feb 29, 2024Food as the “Silent Weapon”: Russia’s Gains and Ukraine’s Losses+3.7%
• Jun 22, 2024How Russia Exports Ukrainian Grain As Its Own: An Investigation-7.2%
• Jul 14, 2022Wheat, soybeans fall on expectations of progress in Ukraine shipping talks - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org-12.5%
• Mar 25, 2025Russia, Ukraine agree to avoid attacks on grain ships, energy infrastructure on Black Sea-1.5%