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Wheat futures rose nearly 4% on Monday after a missile strike on the Ukrainian port of Odesa over the weekend cast doubt on the grain corridor agreement signed the previous week. Chicago wheat recovered much of the ground lost on Friday when prices fell about 6% after the pact was announced.
Doubts about the Black Sea export corridor keep Ukrainian supply uncertain, supporting wheat prices as the market prices in a possible delay in shipments.
reuters.comNigel HuntJul 25, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 464 past geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
