Ukraine shuts ports as conflict threatens grain supplies

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+6.6%
• Feb 24, 2022Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.5%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters-2.2%
• Mar 21, 2022Ukraine could lose $6 bln in grain exports with ports blocked | Reuters+1.5%
• Dec 17, 2025Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals+1.1%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+9.4%
• Feb 24, 2022Commodity supplies at risk as Russia invades Ukraine | Reuters+6.8%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters-5.6%
• Mar 21, 2022Ukraine could lose $6 bln in grain exports with ports blocked | Reuters+15.8%
• Dec 17, 2025Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals+0.8%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.