Ukraine's grain exports curbed as Russian strikes shut terminals

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR+0.5%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-0.2%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+1.8%
• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia+1.7%
• Jun 9, 2022Wheat futures surge after Russia strikes Ukrainian grain terminal - Fastmarkets+1.2%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 3, 2023Ukraine struggles to export its grain — as Russia repeatedly strikes its ports : NPR-0.6%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-3.4%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+0.6%
• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters-0.8%
• Jan 31, 2022Grain exports likely disrupted in a Russian, Ukraine conflict, analyst says+0.6%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.