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Chicago wheat futures jumped as much as 9%, the largest rise since 2012, after Russia's defense ministry said all ships bound for Ukrainian ports from Thursday would be treated as possibly carrying military cargo. Paris wheat closed up 8.2%, its biggest gain since February 2022.
The explicit threat to shipping to Ukraine removes a major grain export route and sharply lifts global wheat benchmarks. Higher wheat prices also strengthen the case for substituting cheaper feed grains.
bloomberg.comAine Quinn, Megan Durisin Albery, Michael HirtzerJul 19, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Chicago wheat jumped as much as 9% after Russia's defense ministry said Ukraine-bound ships would be treated as possible military cargo carriers, a direct Black Sea supply and trade-flow shock close to the move window.
