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Chicago wheat rebounded on May 3, 2023, after hitting a 25-month low, as Russia accused Ukraine of a drone attack on the Kremlin. Ukraine's president said Russia did not appear interested in extending the Black Sea grain deal.
Corn gained while soybeans fell on rapid US planting progress.
Doubts about the Black Sea grain deal add a geopolitical risk premium to wheat after a sharp selloff. Corn also firmed, while planting progress limited gains in soybeans.
financialpost.comReutersMay 3, 2023
kitco.comMay 3, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
