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Chicago corn and wheat futures rose about 1% on December 2 on Black Sea tensions after Ukrainian and Russian-linked attacks on vessels, and on cold weather slowing Midwest grain movement. Soybean futures fell on favorable South American weather and weaker soymeal.
Analysts warned that renewed threats to Black Sea shipping could echo the 2022 price spike.
Black Sea shipping risk supports wheat and corn prices, while weaker soymeal pressures soybean-meal-based feed costs. Cold-weather logistics delays add to nearby cash tightness.
grainews.caReutersDec 2, 2025After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
