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Chicago wheat rose roughly 16% in July, reaching its highest level since 2024 on July 22 before easing as traders took profits. The rally is attributed to Russia-Ukraine attacks spilling into Black Sea shipping lanes, a 4% cut to Russian export forecasts by SovEcon, and a smallest-in-61-years US winter wheat crop due to Southern Plains drought.
Disrupted Black Sea exports and a small US HRW crop tighten global wheat supplies, supporting higher wheat prices and spillover interest in feed grains.
barchart.comEdgeClearJul 31, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
