How much Black Sea wheat is at risk of disruption? Grain market daily

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jan 25, 2022Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-2.1%
• Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily+4.7%
• Feb 15, 2023Black Sea Initiative to keep markets volatile short term: Grain market daily | AHDB-1.4%
• Apr 25, 2023Wheat: All Eyes Are On Extension Of The Black Sea Grain Deal - TalkMarkets+0.0%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-1.4%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jan 25, 2022Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-4.5%
• Apr 25, 2023Wheat: All Eyes Are On Extension Of The Black Sea Grain Deal - TalkMarkets-5.4%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-2.7%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat futures rise on Black Sea export disruptions By Investing.com-2.7%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat markets respond to Sea of Azov attacks - Grainews+6.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.