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Russia said on April 25, 2023, that the Black Sea grain deal had not been properly implemented and would not work as is, as the deal's Russian export provisions remained unaddressed. Chicago wheat contracts fell, with May SRW down 18.5 cents on the day.
US spring wheat planting was 5% complete versus a 12% average.
Uncertainty over Black Sea shipments raises the risk of supply disruption, which supports wheat prices. Slow US spring planting also adds upside risk, though the day's price action was lower.
talkmarkets.comPavan ParikhApr 25, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
