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Russia announced it was quitting the Black Sea grain deal, which expires as a result. U.S. wheat and corn futures slumped after earlier hitting two-week highs, as analysts said the deal might still be renewed and the risk was already priced in.
Expiry of the deal threatens Ukrainian grain export flows and raises freight and supply risk, which is supportive for wheat and corn, but the immediate price reaction was negative because of expectations of renewal.
cnbc.comSam MeredithJul 17, 2023
grainbrokers.com.auJul 25, 2023
producer.comReuters News ServiceJul 17, 2023
reuters.comMichelle Nichols, Guy FaulconbridgeJul 17, 2023After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
