Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Apr 25, 2023Wheat: All Eyes Are On Extension Of The Black Sea Grain Deal - TalkMarkets+0.0%
• Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily+4.7%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat markets respond to Sea of Azov attacks - Grainews+3.9%
• Jul 20, 2023Black Sea conflict boosts wheat prices in Southeast Asia, Australia | S&P Global-0.7%
• Jul 31, 2026Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance-1.7%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily-0.7%
• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+0.0%
• Jul 31, 2026Wheat Futures Rally on Black Sea Escalation as Market Tests Key Resistance-1.6%
• Mar 1, 2022Why the Black Sea Matters to Commodity Markets+4.7%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews+0.5%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• May 21, 2024Wheat prices soar as Black Sea crop causes concern | Dry Bulk-1.5%
• Jul 22, 2026Chicago wheat jumps on renewed attacks on Black Sea ports - Markets - Business Recorder-0.6%
• Mar 21, 2022Wheat rebounds on Black Sea supply worries; corn, soybeans rise 1% - Markets - Business Recorder+2.5%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-4.9%
• Mar 4, 2022How strength in soybean prices is linked to the Black Sea conflict+1.2%