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Wheat futures jumped 4.8% in Chicago, their strongest performance in 10 months, as dry weather in southern Russia and crop damage spread into Ukraine. Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian port of Novorossiysk added geopolitical risk, and Russian export prices rose to a four-month high.
Crop losses and port attacks in the Black Sea tighten export supply, pushing wheat prices higher and supporting feed grain and oilseed markets.
drybulkmagazine.comOliver KleinschmidtMay 21, 2024After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Wheat futures rose 4.8% on May 21, the strongest move in 10 months, on dry weather in southern Russia, spreading Ukrainian crop damage and the Novorossiysk attack.
Describes the strong wheat surge on dry weather in southern Russia, crop damage spreading to Ukraine, and the Novorossiysk attacks; dated May 21 but likely recaps the May 20 move.
