
Chicago wheat futures rose sharply on Monday after hitting 13-1/2 year highs on Friday, as concern grew that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions would disrupt Black Sea grain exports. Corn and soybeans also gained on worries over feed grain and oilseed shipments.
Losing Black Sea wheat, corn and oilseed shipments tightens already scarce global supplies, supporting higher feed grain and oilseed meal prices for buyers.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.