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Concerns are growing over spring crop planting in the Black Sea region as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Ukraine supplies about 16% of world corn exports and 12% of wheat exports, while Russia supplies about 17% of wheat trade.
Russia had not yet planted 30% of its 2022 wheat crop.
Disrupted planting and exports from two major suppliers tighten global corn and wheat balances. Buyers should expect upward pressure on prices.
reuters.comMar 1, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Ukraine supplies about 16% of world corn exports and spring planting concerns raise forward supply risk.
