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Russia has taken two of Ukraine's five main commercial ports, Berdyansk and Mariupol, while Odesa and Mykolaiv remain under Ukrainian control. Those two ports handled 80 percent of Ukraine's pre-war grain exports.
Ukraine supplies about 9 percent of world wheat, 15 percent of maize and 44 percent of sunflower oil exports.
Continued control of Black Sea ports by Russia or Ukraine determines whether large volumes of wheat, corn and sunflower oil reach world markets, shaping feed grain and oilseed prices.
aljazeera.comAlex GatopoulosJun 28, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
