Black Sea grain deal: What's next now that Russia has pulled out?

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters+3.1%
• Jul 27, 2026Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-5.7%
• Jun 28, 2022The Battle for the Black Sea | Russia-Ukraine war | Al Jazeera-6.8%
• Oct 31, 2022Palm rises over 4% after Russia pulls out of Black Sea export corridor - Markets - Business Recorder+3.1%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters+3.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+3.5%
• Oct 29, 2022U.N., Turkey, Ukraine press ahead with Black Sea grain deal despite Russian pullout | Reuters-5.6%
• May 25, 2023Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met-1.8%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+2.4%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters-5.6%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+2.2%
• Oct 29, 2022U.N., Turkey, Ukraine press ahead with Black Sea grain deal despite Russian pullout | Reuters-2.2%
• May 25, 2023Russia signals end to Black Sea grain deal in July if demands not met-4.4%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters-8.6%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters-2.2%