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The UN, Turkey and Ukraine said they would keep the Black Sea grain deal running after Russia's pullout. Over 9.5 million tonnes of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soy have been exported since July under the arrangement, which uses a Joint Coordination Centre to clear ship movements and inspections.
Continued shipments limit the immediate supply shock, but the uncertainty over the corridor's future keeps a risk premium in wheat and corn prices.
reuters.comPavel Polityuk, Michelle NicholsOct 29, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
