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The Black Sea grain deal allows food and fertilizer exports from three Ukrainian ports and has been extended three times, most recently to July 17. Nearly 32 million tonnes of mostly corn and wheat have been exported under it, and no ammonia has yet been shipped despite provision for it.
The deal's uncertain future puts Ukrainian corn and wheat export flows at risk, which supports global grain prices if it lapses.
reuters.comJun 16, 2023After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
