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Malaysian palm oil futures jumped more than 4% on Monday after Russia withdrew from the UN-brokered Black Sea grain export deal following a Ukrainian drone attack on its Crimea fleet. Soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2.3%.
Indonesia planned a crude palm oil reference price of $770.88 per tonne for Nov. 1-15.
Withdrawal from the Black Sea deal threatens grain and sunflower oil shipments to import-dependent countries, supporting competing vegetable oils and grain prices.
brecorder.comReutersOct 31, 2022After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, PALMOIL moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Malaysian palm futures jumped over 4% on Oct 31 after Russia quit the Black Sea grain deal, raising fears for competing sunflower/vegetable oil supply and lifting palm and soyoil.
Russia's Oct 31 withdrawal from the grain deal started the rally, and the momentum carried into Nov 1, though the move itself occurred the prior session.
