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Malaysian palm oil futures climbed for a second straight day, gaining about 4.7% on Tuesday. The rise followed Russia's suspension of its participation in the Black Sea grain export agreement, while Ukrainian grain was still flowing at a record pace.
Indonesia extended its palm oil export levy waiver to year-end.
Uncertainty over Black Sea sunflower oil and grain exports supports competing vegetable oils, while Indonesia's levy waiver adds export supply that caps the upside.
brecorder.comReutersNov 1, 2022brecorder.comReutersNov 1, 2022After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Directly describes the Nov 1 palm futures surge of about 4.7% as Russia suspended the Black Sea grain deal, raising vegetable oil supply concerns, while Indonesia's levy waiver extension added to the move.
