
Chicago wheat rose about 1% to near a two-week high after Russian strikes hit port infrastructure in Odesa, Ukraine. The UN World Food Programme warned that blocked Black Sea routes and attacks on food infrastructure could constrain Ukraine's future wheat output.
Soybeans slipped while corn edged higher.
Attacks on Ukrainian export ports raise the risk of reduced Black Sea wheat supply, supporting wheat prices and feed grain alternatives. Brazilian dryness continued to underpin soybeans.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.