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Grain markets ended November mostly higher on hopes that the US-China trade war would end, with wheat gaining 10-20 cents in the week but losing at least a quarter for the month. Attention focused on the G20 meeting in Argentina and on Russia-Ukraine tensions affecting Azov Sea shipping, which carries about 6% of Ukraine's grain exports.
Crop progress showed US winter wheat 55% good-to-excellent and 94% of corn and soybeans harvested.
Azov Sea shipping risk and US-China trade hopes are the main price swing factors for wheat and feed grains, with trade headlines capable of moving soybeans and corn.
realagriculture.comBrennan TurnerDec 1, 2018After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 118 past geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -3.1% to +3.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Hopes for a US-China trade truce at the G20 and Azov Sea shipping tensions lifted grain sentiment, plausibly adding to wheat's rally into the Nov 30 close, though it is dated after the move.
