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A two-year review finds that the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to disrupt Ukrainian farm output, with occupied regions accounting for about a fifth of its wheat and sunflower seed. Global wheat, corn and soybean prices have fallen below pre-war levels as other exporters, including Russia, increased shipments.
Ongoing disruption to Ukrainian supply is a structural risk, but expanded exports from other origins have offset it and kept prices subdued. Buyers should weigh the risk of renewed disruption against current ample supply.
ifpri.orgJoseph GlauberFeb 26, 2024After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
