Wheat Futures Tumble as Export Buyers Rocked by War in Iran -- Daily Grain Highlights

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+7.3%
• Nov 2, 2022Grain export corridor update, Russia resumes: Grain market daily | AHDB+6.5%
• Aug 18, 2026Problems with Russian Black Sea exports are starting to pressure Central Asian grain markets+0.4%
• Jun 17, 2026Wheat markets shrug off US-Iran deal as freight, harvests take focus | S&P Global-1.6%
• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade+3.1%

After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2018Keeping an eye on Argentina for direction — This week in the grain markets - RealAgriculture+6.8%
• Jun 22, 2024How Russia Exports Ukrainian Grain As Its Own: An Investigation-7.2%
• Feb 14, 2025Wheat, the Dog of the Grain Complex, Rallies to New Highs for the Move - AgWeb+1.4%
• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-3.5%
• Oct 26, 2023U.S. grains: Wheat up off two-week low on Ukraine export uncertainty - AgCanada-3.5%

After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 3, 2025Grain Market Report 3rd December - Irish Farmers' Association-3.3%
• Dec 1, 2018Keeping an eye on Argentina for direction — This week in the grain markets - RealAgriculture+1.7%
• Nov 22, 2023Wheat jumps 1% to near 2-week high on Black Sea supply concerns - Markets - Business Recorder-2.2%
• Feb 26, 2022Black Sea Grain Export Disruptions Won't Be Easy to Replace, Analyst Says+5.4%
• Feb 26, 2024Ukraine and global agricultural markets two years later | IFPRI+0.9%