Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade+3.1%
• Jun 22, 2022Turkish team to discuss Black Sea grain corridor in Russia this week -sources+1.8%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.2%
• Feb 21, 2021Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea+0.7%
• Mar 14, 2022Russia gradually resuming wheat exports from Black Sea ports-1.8%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal - Grain Price News-2.2%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters-8.6%
• Dec 2, 2025U.S. grains: Corn, wheat futures climb on Black Sea tensions - Grainews+0.5%
• Oct 31, 2022Wheat up 6% after Russia quits Black Sea pact; corn, soy firm | Reuters-2.2%
• Jun 16, 2023Explainer: What is Russia's problem with the Black Sea grain deal?+2.2%

After 16 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -4.3% to -1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade-7.1%
• Oct 23, 2026Todd Hubbs Crop Market Update Analyzes Southern Plains Wheat, Global Grain Volatility - Oklahoma Farm Report-2.9%
• Oct 23, 2026Wheat prices fall to 14-week low on Black Sea hopes | Peepals-2.9%
• Jun 17, 2026Wheat markets shrug off US-Iran deal as freight, harvests take focus | S&P Global-5.4%
• Aug 23, 2023US grain markets bumpy amid global challenges | World Grain-3.4%