
Russia is gradually resuming wheat exports from its Black Sea ports, with all five grain terminals exporting. Azov Sea navigation remains restricted, and Russian wheat prices are volatile at about $415 per tonne FOB.
Ukraine's exports are slow and rely on rail.
Resumed Russian shipments add supply back to a tight world wheat market, which eases upward pressure on prices. Continued restrictions and volatility limit how far prices fall.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.