Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations to allow Ukrainian grain and fertiliser to leave Black Sea ports, which had been blocked by war. The deal is expected to enable Ukraine to export 22 million tonnes of grain and other agricultural products, and Russian grain and fertiliser exports are also covered.
Reopening Black Sea ports adds large volumes of wheat and corn to world supply, which pressures prices lower and eases the shortage that had supported them.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.