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Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have disabled or destroyed about a third of Russia's Black Sea fleet, enabling a sharp recovery in seaborne trade through Odesa. Ship arrivals have returned to over 200 per month.
A secure Black Sea corridor restores Ukrainian grain export capacity, which tends to pressure world wheat and corn prices lower and lowers war-risk freight costs.
ig.ft.comSam JoinerMay 9, 2024After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
