
Turkey and Russia reached a tentative deal to restart shipments of Ukrainian agricultural products from a key Black Sea port. Kyiv remains skeptical of the proposed pact, according to people familiar with the discussions.
A restart of Ukrainian grain shipments would add export supply and ease upward pressure on wheat and corn prices, though uncertainty over Kyiv's acceptance limits the impact.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.